Even better, how will it impact a not-for-profit health plan--one with a reputation for being a "good guy" that continually wins the country's top awards for member services and with historic profits of less than 1% of premium? And, one that is operating in Massachusetts--a market that has already been through much of this?
I will suggest that, in combination, these are three intriguing questions.
That is why I thought that the Harvard Pilgrim's CEO's recent post on their website was important. It is short, direct, and to the point. And, from everything I know, it is bang-on.
From the look of the finished product, most of the [more recent changes to the Reid bill] were unrelated to health reform, since the changes to the bill itself were marginal. The individual requirement to purchase has been tweaked, but still fails to ensure that individuals cannot delay buying coverage until they need it. A new Independent Payment Advisory Board will be created, but because its recommendations are not binding, its impact on meaningful cost containment is questionable. The most significant additions are new provisions directed at health insurers, including minimum medical expense ratio requirements, and a back-loading of the health insurance premium tax, designed to delay inevitable premium increases...You can read the rest of Bruce Bullen's comments at "Let's Talk Health Care."
The flawed structure of the bill is therefore retained, which means that expansion of eligibility and other reforms are largely delayed to 2014, but changes having the effect of increasing health insurance premiums will take effect prior to 2014. Before seeing any material benefits of reform, some will see their Medicare payroll tax rate increase, many fully insured subscribers will, beginning in 2011, see the effects of the health insurance premium tax, and everyone in the commercial market will see the cost-shifting effects of Medicare payment reductions and the tax on drug and medical device manufacturers. Medicare Advantage plan enrollees will also see sharp increases in premiums. Since there is no significant cost containment in the bill, these increases will occur on top of normal medical trend. And because the universal requirement to purchase coverage is weak, adverse selection will further increase costs starting in 2014...
Imagine how this plays in Massachusetts, where the insurance market is already reformed, the cost of health insurance is already high, and the major health plans are not-for-profits. The impact of federal health reform will be little more than higher premiums...
Our colleagues at the Massachusetts Hospital Association just released a “Health Plan Performance Report” which compares key financial indicators for the state’s health plans. It shows that in 2009 [before any of the changes occur] the four dominant not-for-profit health plans in Massachusetts all have less than a 1% profit margin and a medical expense ratio of 90% or higher. Not much room there to finance anything else.
There Are Four Health Insurance Renewal Cycles and Two Elections Between Now and 2014—Could be Sort of Like a “Death By a Thousand Cuts” for the Dems